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Trading expectancy calculator

Trading expectancy estimates the average result per trade in a recorded sample. This calculator uses trade counts so breakeven trades remain in the denominator instead of being silently classified as losses.

Updated August 31, 2026 · Educational information only

THE FORMULA

Expectancy = (win probability × average win) − (loss probability × average loss)

Win and loss probabilities are each calculated over all entered trades, including breakevens. Average loss is entered as a positive magnitude. The result uses the same unit as the average outcomes.

WORKED EXAMPLE

See how the number is produced.

For 18 wins, 22 losses, 0 breakevens, a $180 average win, and a $100 average loss: (18/40 × 180) − (22/40 × 100) = $26 per trade.

HOW TO READ IT

Interpret the result with context.

  • A positive result means the sample produced a positive average outcome per entered trade.
  • The scenario projection multiplies historical expectancy by a chosen number of trades; it is not a forecast or confidence interval.
  • Use the payoff ratio and profit factor to understand how the same expectancy was produced.

COMMON MISTAKES

Keep the inputs consistent.

  • Using gross wins with net losses or mixing currencies and units of risk.
  • Excluding breakeven trades from total trades without documenting that rule.
  • Treating a few trades or one outlier as a stable estimate.
  • Assuming historical expectancy guarantees the next trade or future period.

COMMON QUESTIONS

Trading expectancy calculator FAQ

What unit does expectancy use?

It uses the same unit as average win and average loss. Enter dollars for dollars per trade, percentage points for percentage points per trade, or R-multiples for R per trade.

How are breakeven trades handled?

They add to total trades but not to winning or losing value, so both win and loss probabilities can sum to less than 100%.

How many trades are enough?

There is no universal number. Stability depends on the process and outcome distribution. Inspect rolling samples, outliers, and whether the strategy or market conditions changed.