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Break-even win rate calculator
Break-even win rate is the win frequency at which average expectancy equals zero for the entered payoff sizes. It is a mathematical threshold, not a recommended target or safety margin.
Updated August 31, 2026 · Educational information onlyTHE FORMULA
Break-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss) × 100
Use average net win and average net loss after the costs you want included. Enter average loss as a positive magnitude.
WORKED EXAMPLE
See how the number is produced.
If average net win is $200 and average net loss is $100, break-even win rate is 100 ÷ (200 + 100) = 33.33%.
HOW TO READ IT
Interpret the result with context.
- A historical win rate above the threshold implies positive expectancy only if the entered average outcomes remain representative.
- A historical win rate below the threshold implies negative expectancy under those same assumptions.
- Use a margin for estimation error rather than treating the threshold as precise evidence about the future.
COMMON MISTAKES
Keep the inputs consistent.
- Using gross average wins and fee-adjusted average losses.
- Entering average loss as a negative number.
- Assuming payoff size remains constant as market conditions or execution changes.
- Ignoring breakevens and partial exits when constructing the averages.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Break-even win rate calculator FAQ
Is break-even win rate the same as actual win rate?
No. One is a threshold implied by payoff size; the other is the observed frequency of winners in a sample.
Where do costs belong?
Include them in the net outcome of each trade before calculating average win and average loss.